Chinese Business in India-Pakistan Arms Race
By: Darlene Machell Espena
Abstract
The future of South Asia is difficult to predict with any confidence. Many observers believe that there will be continued uncertainty and ambiguity over the different scenarios that could escalate the current situation into a nuclear war between the two countries (Intriligator and Brit0, 1984). There remains to be a critical potential that a nuclear war will be fought, given equivocal circumstances and the continuous proliferation of arms and nuclear weapons in the region. Contrary from the general notion that India and Pakistan’s defence and security measures should be examined as the primary determinant of the nuclear outlook of the region, this paper asserts that China’s involvement in the India-Pakistan arms race is in fact, the key factor that would define the kind of nuclear future that awaits South Asia. China’s support for Pakistan essentially sustains the arms build up of both countries, thus increases the tension in the region and hastens the likelihood of a nuclear war.
In support of this argument, this paper analyzes the Sino-Pakistan relations, their asserted all-weather friendship as well as China’s support to Pakistan not only in terms of military aid but also in terms of economic agreements and the financial support given to Pakistan. The bilateral trade agreements between the two countries are crucial in examining the motive of China’s involvement in the India-Pakistan arms race and the mutual benefits received by China and Pakistan as a consequence of their cooperation (and as evidenced by the supply of nuclear weapons and technology of China to Pakistan).
Moreover, this paper also points out the implication of the historical conflicts and outstanding disputes of India and China over their internal issues to China’s decision to take the side of Pakistan in the Indo-Pakistani conflict. The last part is a brief discussion of the probable reasons why China tilts towards Pakistan, the economic and strategic importance of Pakistan for China as the primary raison d'être of China’s inclination towards the country, which pushes her to give military aid to Pakistan. China’s support to Pakistan implicitly hastens the current nuclear proliferation in South Asia as well would determine the possible nuclear future that awaits the region.
Background
India and Pakistan are two of the world’s poorest countries, yet each has been allocating a substantial fraction of her resources to defend herself against the other through military strengthening and a nuclear program. Both countries virtually developed nuclear technology and are incessantly expanding their defence and military force subsequent to the three conventional wars that they fought against each other. By far, probably the key issue in their dispute and the primary reason why they the two countries started to build up their weapons and consequently engage in an arms race is the territorial contest over Jammu and Kashmir, which was claimed by both countries (Clardy, 2000). They mutually insist and demand to hold the control over the area and exercise their much-desired territorial sovereignty. While resolution seemed to be far from coming and trust between the two countries slowly fading, there exists an arms proliferation amid India and Pakistan.
Though it is difficult to pinpoint the precise period when the nuclear arms build up started, it could be traced way back in 1974, as India demonstrated her nuclear capability in a so-called peaceful nuclear explosive test at an underground facility in the Chagai Hills. General Pervez Musharraf contended that Pakistan perceived the power boasted by India’s demonstration of supremacy to be a threat to Pakistan’s own security and accordingly responded to “balance” her enemy’s nuclear advantage by building her own nuclear arsenal. On May 11 and 13, 1998, India tested five nuclear weapons in the Rajasthan Desert to display her political and military power as a potential leader in the South Asian region.
Not to be outdone, by the end of the month, May 28, Pakistan had followed suit and detonated six nuclear devices, five to match India’s explosive test and one as a delayed response to the peaceful explosive test in 1974. Subsequent to these nuclear tests, the two governments in Islamabad and New Delhi boldly announced to the world that they both have the capability to retaliate with nuclear weapons in response to any attack.
Today, both countries are relentlessly building up their nuclear and conventional arms and the tension is heightened between them and the in the whole South Asian region as well. The current trend of arms proliferation in the region is growing to be a scorching race between India and Pakistan and is increasingly alarming, as it tends to bring instability and unrest in the region. Pakistan and India’s resolute actions in military strengthening and nuclear arms program have long been a fervent issue among military strategists and political analysts, however, at present, there exist varying views and opinions regarding both the cause and the probable future of this so-called India-Pakistan arms race.
On the one hand, following the logic of rational deterrence theory, proliferation optimists reason that with the arms build up in the region, there would be greater control and deterrence. They argue that statesmen and soldiers in Islamabad and New Delhi are sentient of the huge destructive damage that could wound them seriously in case a war broke and therefore, will be deterred from starting any military conflict that could escalate into a nuclear war (Sagan, 2001).
On the other hand, the proliferation pessimists believe that this conflict is mounting a threat to peace and regionalism in South Asia. They argue of the possibility that a future nuclear war between India and Pakistan will take place if their outstanding issues will not be resolved. They do not base their argument on the supposition that Indian and Pakistani policy makers are irrational. Instead, Sagan (2001) pointed out that according to these scholars, to understand the problem and predict the outlook of security in the region, the military organization and civil bureaucracy of the two countries must be examined. They also contend that the leaders of both states seeks perfect security through arms build up and deterrence but imperfect humans inside imperfect organizations will in due time, fail to secure deterrence that would ignite a nuclear war.
Nonetheless, the kind of nuclear prospect that awaits South Asia should not only be seen as a probable consequence of deterrence or the military organizations and civil bureaucracy of the India and Pakistan. This conflict is not purely a product of the compounded internal issues between India and Pakistan that remains to be unresolved. Essentially, the present condition is becoming more critical as another factor came to augment the current circumstance in the region. Particularly, the position played by one of the world’s fast rising superpowers, the emerging China.
Sino-Pakistan Relationship: China’s tilt towards India’s Archenemy, Pakistan
In the current trend of arms build up in South Asia, China's role in supplying Pakistan the necessary nuclear weapons and technology has raised serious concerns about China's part in fuelling the arms race and creating instability in South Asian region. Since the 1970s China has been vital in Pakistan's nuclear and military strengthening. China provided Pakistan with highly enriched uranium ring magnets necessary for processing and the operational education for nuclear engineers. Pakistan allegedly even received Chinese blueprints to operationalize the building of her own nuclear bomb. China has also aided Pakistan with nuclear capable M11 missiles that could reach as far as 186 miles. Furthermore, reports reflected that China has leaked the necessary technology for Pakistan to construct another missile that could strike the target enemy within a 360-miles range. Her all-season friend, China, also supplied Tarmuk and Shaheen missiles, which are fissile missile, to Pakistan.
Quite evidently, China and Pakistan have a solid strategic relationship since the Post-Cold War Era as they enjoyed 54 years of friendship, which was rooted to the period when Pakistan forged diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China on May 21, 1951. Their all-weather friendship was explained to be based on their shared interest in regional stability, the UN Charter and the five principles of peaceful co-existence, but more realistically, it is based on the mutual benefit that they receive from their friendship.
China provided Pakistan with a wide range of conventional and nuclear weapons since both established diplomatic and military relations. They also have a close partnership in various defence cooperation programs. It is, nevertheless, a mutual benefit for Pakistan and China to be closely tied in a common strategic defence frontier. Considering the relatively low capacity of Pakistan to produce indigenous missiles, she practically needed and was dependent to the Chinese support to counter the comparative military advantage of India, who, on the other hand, persistently advances her own capability in defence and nuclear program. China offered Pakistan cheaper military supplies and easy credit repayment terms, an undeniably possible way to respond to India’s military and defence actions (Arnett, 1997). With the sizeable inflow of Chinese missiles and nuclear technology, Pakistan was able to maintain relative military capability with India. While this is a compelling reason enough to pressure India to still build up her own line of defence against the Sino-Pakistani team up.
However, the lasting friendship and support given by China to Pakistan does not end in the former country’s streaming of arms and nuclear technology. Pakistan has also been receiving various financial aids from China. Their bond extended in various bilateral agreements and cooperation. In one of his visits in China, Musharraf consequently said that the Sino-Pakistani relationship has been a fruitful one, with many great monuments to prove their solid liaison such as the Karakoram Highway, Heavy Mechanical and Electrical complexes, Saindak copper and gold mines project and most notably the Gwadar Deep Sea Port. These are but a few of the preferential bilateral treaties and projects that the two countries worked out that strengthen the tie-up of the two countries.
More importantly, the Gwadar project is the most critical among these in examining the Sino-Pakistani relationship. It has been primed to be the third largest port in Pakistan and as a regional hub for trade and commerce between South Asian nations and the countries in Central Asia. Chinese role is apparently crucial in the construction of the said project; in fact, China invested a soaring amount of 7 billion rupees ($114 million) in the 10 billion rupees Gwadar port and pledged to continue giving the assistance even in the building of the Mekran Highway that would connect Gwadar to Pakistan’s main port in Karachi. The Chinese government vindicated that the support she has been giving Pakistan as practically to promote their common goals for economic development. Looking closely at their relation, it was clear that China did not only support Pakistan in terms of its need for military aid, at the same time she also, with great efforts supported Pakistan’s economy and more likely benefited from it, which will be further elaborated at the later part of this paper.
Moreover, in 2003, Chinese President Hu Jintao offered Pakistan a preferential loan of US$ 500 million for bilateral trade and economic cooperation. He offered this to Musharraf during his talks with the Pakistani President. During a 40-minute speech at the Peking University, Musharraf blatantly praised Sino-Pakistani relationship saying that China is a positive force for the economic stability and progress in South Asia. Pakistan was then looking forward to China’s engagement in Central and South Asia similar to her economic and commercial role across the Asia-Pacific. These actions non-apprehensively taken by China in support of Pakistan are crucial and were extended, as stated, not only in the defence side but also in terms of economy. Nevertheless, what then pushes China to offer such assistance to Pakistan? Before we try to answer the question, it is important to look first on the Sino-Indian relationship and its implication in the conflict between India and Pakistan.
The Sino- India relationship
The Indo-China relationship was never simple or smooth-flowing; it has been complicated by the various conflicts between the two countries, who coincidentally cradle the world’s largest populations. On top of it all, the border dispute concerning these two countries still persists; and was further complicated by China's indomitable refusal to recognize India's sovereignty over its North-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. The issue has been hurdling peace and the trust of both states in their commitment to resolve the matter. The problem even came to a point when they fought a war over the disputed territory which happened in 1962. China was able to use its military strength in the war against India and was able to prove that she can flex her coercive muscle. Up till now, the issue has never reached a point of agreement and the hostility, though pacified, could not be considered as ended (Sagan, 2001).
The hostility between the two countries also extends to the Tibetan conflict and India's support to the Dalai Lama. During the exile of the Dalai Lama, India offered to provide the religious and political leader of Lhasa protection and political asylum. China felt that India was and is still opposing her actions in the Chinese province of Tibet. Up till now, the Chinese government feels that India is supporting the irredentist movements in the Tibetan region.
The fact that Pakistan has allowed a part of the Karakoram Highway in the still-disputed Kashmir to come under the control of the Chinese is by far aggravating the Indian perception of Chinese interests in the region. China has invested in the construction of the Karakoram Highway, as well as in other road network in Pakistan (e.g. Mekran Highway), in the part of Kashmir that was occupied by Pakistan and afterwards gained the control of that area. India reacted indifferently with the move taken by China (Dash, 1996).
Consequently, Chinese entrance to Kashmir is a threat for the India’s security and an indicator of an alliance between Pakistan and China. The action would result to the Indian perception that China will be extending its forces to the edge of the Line of Control and aid Pakistan to put Kashmir under her full control. China is becoming bold in her actions as she tried to expand her authority to the other side of her western border, ensuing to a more challenged and threatened India.
More so, as China began its economic reforms and started opening up in the early 1980s, there has been a tremendous pressure to tap potential markets, including the possible market for missiles and nuclear exports. Being one of largest populations in the world, India’s labour cost competes with the price of labour in China as well as the skills needed for various industries such as information technology. This stirs up the competition between India and China for foreign direct investments that searches to invest in countries with the cheap labour.
But more importantly, China’s actions should be seen as a drift of Chinese effort to secure her economic foothold in South Asia. Being an emerging economic power with spurring economic growth leads her to secure her own interests and defend the probable aggression that may be acted upon against her. And India, being the largest power in the region, confronts to be her primary contender.
The Emerging China and Chinese interests in Pakistan
After the Second World War, China has been a fast rising economy and has proven to have the potential to become the next superpower with its strong arms and robust economy. However, it is difficult to predict how she would behave considering that, historically, never was there a time when China deliberately succumb to imperialism. Although, she had been a part to a number of wars with her neighbours such as Japan, Vietnam and India, it must be noted that the country had her share of upheavals in the past during the so-called slicing up of the Chinese melon by the European imperialists in the 19th century, it may be still possible that she had not forgotten the wrongs she had suffered in the hands of foreign powers. With the newly acquired economic power, it is not impossible for China to become a military power. The truth is China has been grooming it military and moved to modernize her arms and weapons suggesting that she is capable of flexing her muscle for coercive actions against other countries and to defend her national interests.
Many might still be apprehensive of the possibility that China will be capable of using her nuclear armaments. Nonetheless the fact that China's approach for potential use of her military strength was illustrated by Beijing's missile demonstration against Taiwan in the Taiwan Straits in March 1996 should never be overlooked. This demonstration of power by the industrializing China can be seen as an indirect threat to the region as well as to the US, who remains to be the status-quo power in the global arena of nations. Simply, China is thus an emerging military and economic superpower in the region as well as in the international arena with vested national interests that needed to be asserted and secured.
The feat taken by China in South Asia can be considered as a part of the Chinese efforts to secure its economic foothold in the South Asian region. Consequently, the military aid given by China to Pakistan should be seen as a move by the emerging China to get hold of the necessary strategic requirement in order to extend her influence in the western flank of its national territory. Pakistan's relative importance to China as an ally to maintain China's dominance or relative power in the Asian region and at the same time to secure China's economic interests is practically on the account of its inherent strategic location in the Arabian Sea.
As stated above, China plays a vital role in the economy of Pakistan and is continuously strengthening bilateral agreements with the country concerning trade and investments. The Gwadar port is a critical point in this matter; it was groomed by both Pakistan and China to be a regional hub for trade and goods flow in Asia as the port is strategically located in an area suitable for the transfer of goods from the Gulf States and South Asia, extending to Southeast Asia. Moreover, China’s demands for a preferential advantage in the control of the area may be well seen as an attempt of China to have a greater have power over the economy of Pakistan. Since Pakistan is a good point for the Chinese business where it could manipulate the trade route from the Gulf States and South Asia, China is now forced to ensure that they could manage Pakistan as well as benefit from the inherent advantage of the country’s location (i.e. it provides Pakistan with the necessary arms and aid against India).
The Gwadar port is practically the most promising trading centre in the region. It has been rapidly growing and businesses are stating to settle and flood the area. This swift development in the area provides numerous new commercial opportunities for investors. Chinese’s control and friendly alliance with Pakistan would eventually protect their interests in Gwadar business and trade.
Moreover, Pakistan, as it is situated in the mouth of the Arabian Sea near the Gulf States and the oil producing States, turns out to be a necessary point for China in order to ensure the supply of oil from the Gulf States and to serve as the Chinese’ foothold to facilitate the flow of market of the region. If China would be able to control the stoke points in Pakistan, e.g. Gwadar port and Karachi, it may well secure its supply of oil as well as the control of regional trade and market. Furthermore, Pakistan's nuclear strength, as supported by China balances the relative dominance of India in the region, who also as mentioned had her share of ill feeling to China and is the primary contender of China in its economic interests in the region. As stated above, the border disputes between the two counties have been a source of tension; the Chinese control over Kashmir, the Tibetan issue and the Arunachal Pradesh conflict are all flaring up the resentment between India and China.
China's perception that India is a hump in her economic interests in South Asia is also adding up to the factors that motivate China to support Pakistan against India that is a reason why China chose of align herself with Pakistan and bolstering the nuclear armaments of the state. India responded to move ahead of Pakistan and reacted to build her own nuclear weapons thus causes a spiralling quantity of nuclear build up in South Asia.
Conclusion
The India–Pakistan arms race is not merely a result of the internal conflicts that drive a wedge between the two countries. There exists to be a vital factor that hastens the spiralling size of nuclear weapons and armaments in South Asia, and that is the role of China as an ally of Pakistan.
The involvement of Chinese military and economic support for Pakistan heightens the tension between the rival South Asian countries and brings about a possibility that either is willing and ready to use their nuclear arms in case they will be attacked. China as an emerging economic power is driven by its economic motives and its interest to secure its influence in the South Asian region concerning a number of items, such as to secure the supply of oil and the control of regional trade and market as mentioned above, which are of great concern for the Chinese. These motivate her to supply her all-weather friend, Pakistan with all the necessary nuclear weapons and armaments to be able to balance the superiority of India, who is her prime contender in her interests in the region. The tilt of China towards Pakistan brings about an ominous perception for India causing her to maintain and even develop her military strength, thus escalating the India-Pakistan arms race.
As a conclusion, the nuclear future of South Asia is dependent on the potential actions that will be followed by the Chinese government in the region. If the Chinese goes for an aggressive stunt to extend her influence in South Asia with the help of Pakistan, India will definitely respond belligerently, thus the possibility of using her nuclear weapons, a rather hostile nuclear event might soon to follow.
On the other hand, should China take the non-violent stance and pursue economic cooperation that would benefit her, then there will be lesser possibility that a nuclear war would ensue. India and Pakistan will eventually set their conflicts aside to discuss and resolve their outstanding issues and get things done to uphold their national economic interests as well as to ensure national security. A greater cooperation among the countries involved will be advanced to promote mutual economic development and peace and order in the South Asian region will be preserved.
Abstract
The future of South Asia is difficult to predict with any confidence. Many observers believe that there will be continued uncertainty and ambiguity over the different scenarios that could escalate the current situation into a nuclear war between the two countries (Intriligator and Brit0, 1984). There remains to be a critical potential that a nuclear war will be fought, given equivocal circumstances and the continuous proliferation of arms and nuclear weapons in the region. Contrary from the general notion that India and Pakistan’s defence and security measures should be examined as the primary determinant of the nuclear outlook of the region, this paper asserts that China’s involvement in the India-Pakistan arms race is in fact, the key factor that would define the kind of nuclear future that awaits South Asia. China’s support for Pakistan essentially sustains the arms build up of both countries, thus increases the tension in the region and hastens the likelihood of a nuclear war.
In support of this argument, this paper analyzes the Sino-Pakistan relations, their asserted all-weather friendship as well as China’s support to Pakistan not only in terms of military aid but also in terms of economic agreements and the financial support given to Pakistan. The bilateral trade agreements between the two countries are crucial in examining the motive of China’s involvement in the India-Pakistan arms race and the mutual benefits received by China and Pakistan as a consequence of their cooperation (and as evidenced by the supply of nuclear weapons and technology of China to Pakistan).
Moreover, this paper also points out the implication of the historical conflicts and outstanding disputes of India and China over their internal issues to China’s decision to take the side of Pakistan in the Indo-Pakistani conflict. The last part is a brief discussion of the probable reasons why China tilts towards Pakistan, the economic and strategic importance of Pakistan for China as the primary raison d'être of China’s inclination towards the country, which pushes her to give military aid to Pakistan. China’s support to Pakistan implicitly hastens the current nuclear proliferation in South Asia as well would determine the possible nuclear future that awaits the region.
Background
India and Pakistan are two of the world’s poorest countries, yet each has been allocating a substantial fraction of her resources to defend herself against the other through military strengthening and a nuclear program. Both countries virtually developed nuclear technology and are incessantly expanding their defence and military force subsequent to the three conventional wars that they fought against each other. By far, probably the key issue in their dispute and the primary reason why they the two countries started to build up their weapons and consequently engage in an arms race is the territorial contest over Jammu and Kashmir, which was claimed by both countries (Clardy, 2000). They mutually insist and demand to hold the control over the area and exercise their much-desired territorial sovereignty. While resolution seemed to be far from coming and trust between the two countries slowly fading, there exists an arms proliferation amid India and Pakistan.
Though it is difficult to pinpoint the precise period when the nuclear arms build up started, it could be traced way back in 1974, as India demonstrated her nuclear capability in a so-called peaceful nuclear explosive test at an underground facility in the Chagai Hills. General Pervez Musharraf contended that Pakistan perceived the power boasted by India’s demonstration of supremacy to be a threat to Pakistan’s own security and accordingly responded to “balance” her enemy’s nuclear advantage by building her own nuclear arsenal. On May 11 and 13, 1998, India tested five nuclear weapons in the Rajasthan Desert to display her political and military power as a potential leader in the South Asian region.
Not to be outdone, by the end of the month, May 28, Pakistan had followed suit and detonated six nuclear devices, five to match India’s explosive test and one as a delayed response to the peaceful explosive test in 1974. Subsequent to these nuclear tests, the two governments in Islamabad and New Delhi boldly announced to the world that they both have the capability to retaliate with nuclear weapons in response to any attack.
Today, both countries are relentlessly building up their nuclear and conventional arms and the tension is heightened between them and the in the whole South Asian region as well. The current trend of arms proliferation in the region is growing to be a scorching race between India and Pakistan and is increasingly alarming, as it tends to bring instability and unrest in the region. Pakistan and India’s resolute actions in military strengthening and nuclear arms program have long been a fervent issue among military strategists and political analysts, however, at present, there exist varying views and opinions regarding both the cause and the probable future of this so-called India-Pakistan arms race.
On the one hand, following the logic of rational deterrence theory, proliferation optimists reason that with the arms build up in the region, there would be greater control and deterrence. They argue that statesmen and soldiers in Islamabad and New Delhi are sentient of the huge destructive damage that could wound them seriously in case a war broke and therefore, will be deterred from starting any military conflict that could escalate into a nuclear war (Sagan, 2001).
On the other hand, the proliferation pessimists believe that this conflict is mounting a threat to peace and regionalism in South Asia. They argue of the possibility that a future nuclear war between India and Pakistan will take place if their outstanding issues will not be resolved. They do not base their argument on the supposition that Indian and Pakistani policy makers are irrational. Instead, Sagan (2001) pointed out that according to these scholars, to understand the problem and predict the outlook of security in the region, the military organization and civil bureaucracy of the two countries must be examined. They also contend that the leaders of both states seeks perfect security through arms build up and deterrence but imperfect humans inside imperfect organizations will in due time, fail to secure deterrence that would ignite a nuclear war.
Nonetheless, the kind of nuclear prospect that awaits South Asia should not only be seen as a probable consequence of deterrence or the military organizations and civil bureaucracy of the India and Pakistan. This conflict is not purely a product of the compounded internal issues between India and Pakistan that remains to be unresolved. Essentially, the present condition is becoming more critical as another factor came to augment the current circumstance in the region. Particularly, the position played by one of the world’s fast rising superpowers, the emerging China.
Sino-Pakistan Relationship: China’s tilt towards India’s Archenemy, Pakistan
In the current trend of arms build up in South Asia, China's role in supplying Pakistan the necessary nuclear weapons and technology has raised serious concerns about China's part in fuelling the arms race and creating instability in South Asian region. Since the 1970s China has been vital in Pakistan's nuclear and military strengthening. China provided Pakistan with highly enriched uranium ring magnets necessary for processing and the operational education for nuclear engineers. Pakistan allegedly even received Chinese blueprints to operationalize the building of her own nuclear bomb. China has also aided Pakistan with nuclear capable M11 missiles that could reach as far as 186 miles. Furthermore, reports reflected that China has leaked the necessary technology for Pakistan to construct another missile that could strike the target enemy within a 360-miles range. Her all-season friend, China, also supplied Tarmuk and Shaheen missiles, which are fissile missile, to Pakistan.
Quite evidently, China and Pakistan have a solid strategic relationship since the Post-Cold War Era as they enjoyed 54 years of friendship, which was rooted to the period when Pakistan forged diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China on May 21, 1951. Their all-weather friendship was explained to be based on their shared interest in regional stability, the UN Charter and the five principles of peaceful co-existence, but more realistically, it is based on the mutual benefit that they receive from their friendship.
China provided Pakistan with a wide range of conventional and nuclear weapons since both established diplomatic and military relations. They also have a close partnership in various defence cooperation programs. It is, nevertheless, a mutual benefit for Pakistan and China to be closely tied in a common strategic defence frontier. Considering the relatively low capacity of Pakistan to produce indigenous missiles, she practically needed and was dependent to the Chinese support to counter the comparative military advantage of India, who, on the other hand, persistently advances her own capability in defence and nuclear program. China offered Pakistan cheaper military supplies and easy credit repayment terms, an undeniably possible way to respond to India’s military and defence actions (Arnett, 1997). With the sizeable inflow of Chinese missiles and nuclear technology, Pakistan was able to maintain relative military capability with India. While this is a compelling reason enough to pressure India to still build up her own line of defence against the Sino-Pakistani team up.
However, the lasting friendship and support given by China to Pakistan does not end in the former country’s streaming of arms and nuclear technology. Pakistan has also been receiving various financial aids from China. Their bond extended in various bilateral agreements and cooperation. In one of his visits in China, Musharraf consequently said that the Sino-Pakistani relationship has been a fruitful one, with many great monuments to prove their solid liaison such as the Karakoram Highway, Heavy Mechanical and Electrical complexes, Saindak copper and gold mines project and most notably the Gwadar Deep Sea Port. These are but a few of the preferential bilateral treaties and projects that the two countries worked out that strengthen the tie-up of the two countries.
More importantly, the Gwadar project is the most critical among these in examining the Sino-Pakistani relationship. It has been primed to be the third largest port in Pakistan and as a regional hub for trade and commerce between South Asian nations and the countries in Central Asia. Chinese role is apparently crucial in the construction of the said project; in fact, China invested a soaring amount of 7 billion rupees ($114 million) in the 10 billion rupees Gwadar port and pledged to continue giving the assistance even in the building of the Mekran Highway that would connect Gwadar to Pakistan’s main port in Karachi. The Chinese government vindicated that the support she has been giving Pakistan as practically to promote their common goals for economic development. Looking closely at their relation, it was clear that China did not only support Pakistan in terms of its need for military aid, at the same time she also, with great efforts supported Pakistan’s economy and more likely benefited from it, which will be further elaborated at the later part of this paper.
Moreover, in 2003, Chinese President Hu Jintao offered Pakistan a preferential loan of US$ 500 million for bilateral trade and economic cooperation. He offered this to Musharraf during his talks with the Pakistani President. During a 40-minute speech at the Peking University, Musharraf blatantly praised Sino-Pakistani relationship saying that China is a positive force for the economic stability and progress in South Asia. Pakistan was then looking forward to China’s engagement in Central and South Asia similar to her economic and commercial role across the Asia-Pacific. These actions non-apprehensively taken by China in support of Pakistan are crucial and were extended, as stated, not only in the defence side but also in terms of economy. Nevertheless, what then pushes China to offer such assistance to Pakistan? Before we try to answer the question, it is important to look first on the Sino-Indian relationship and its implication in the conflict between India and Pakistan.
The Sino- India relationship
The Indo-China relationship was never simple or smooth-flowing; it has been complicated by the various conflicts between the two countries, who coincidentally cradle the world’s largest populations. On top of it all, the border dispute concerning these two countries still persists; and was further complicated by China's indomitable refusal to recognize India's sovereignty over its North-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. The issue has been hurdling peace and the trust of both states in their commitment to resolve the matter. The problem even came to a point when they fought a war over the disputed territory which happened in 1962. China was able to use its military strength in the war against India and was able to prove that she can flex her coercive muscle. Up till now, the issue has never reached a point of agreement and the hostility, though pacified, could not be considered as ended (Sagan, 2001).
The hostility between the two countries also extends to the Tibetan conflict and India's support to the Dalai Lama. During the exile of the Dalai Lama, India offered to provide the religious and political leader of Lhasa protection and political asylum. China felt that India was and is still opposing her actions in the Chinese province of Tibet. Up till now, the Chinese government feels that India is supporting the irredentist movements in the Tibetan region.
The fact that Pakistan has allowed a part of the Karakoram Highway in the still-disputed Kashmir to come under the control of the Chinese is by far aggravating the Indian perception of Chinese interests in the region. China has invested in the construction of the Karakoram Highway, as well as in other road network in Pakistan (e.g. Mekran Highway), in the part of Kashmir that was occupied by Pakistan and afterwards gained the control of that area. India reacted indifferently with the move taken by China (Dash, 1996).
Consequently, Chinese entrance to Kashmir is a threat for the India’s security and an indicator of an alliance between Pakistan and China. The action would result to the Indian perception that China will be extending its forces to the edge of the Line of Control and aid Pakistan to put Kashmir under her full control. China is becoming bold in her actions as she tried to expand her authority to the other side of her western border, ensuing to a more challenged and threatened India.
More so, as China began its economic reforms and started opening up in the early 1980s, there has been a tremendous pressure to tap potential markets, including the possible market for missiles and nuclear exports. Being one of largest populations in the world, India’s labour cost competes with the price of labour in China as well as the skills needed for various industries such as information technology. This stirs up the competition between India and China for foreign direct investments that searches to invest in countries with the cheap labour.
But more importantly, China’s actions should be seen as a drift of Chinese effort to secure her economic foothold in South Asia. Being an emerging economic power with spurring economic growth leads her to secure her own interests and defend the probable aggression that may be acted upon against her. And India, being the largest power in the region, confronts to be her primary contender.
The Emerging China and Chinese interests in Pakistan
After the Second World War, China has been a fast rising economy and has proven to have the potential to become the next superpower with its strong arms and robust economy. However, it is difficult to predict how she would behave considering that, historically, never was there a time when China deliberately succumb to imperialism. Although, she had been a part to a number of wars with her neighbours such as Japan, Vietnam and India, it must be noted that the country had her share of upheavals in the past during the so-called slicing up of the Chinese melon by the European imperialists in the 19th century, it may be still possible that she had not forgotten the wrongs she had suffered in the hands of foreign powers. With the newly acquired economic power, it is not impossible for China to become a military power. The truth is China has been grooming it military and moved to modernize her arms and weapons suggesting that she is capable of flexing her muscle for coercive actions against other countries and to defend her national interests.
Many might still be apprehensive of the possibility that China will be capable of using her nuclear armaments. Nonetheless the fact that China's approach for potential use of her military strength was illustrated by Beijing's missile demonstration against Taiwan in the Taiwan Straits in March 1996 should never be overlooked. This demonstration of power by the industrializing China can be seen as an indirect threat to the region as well as to the US, who remains to be the status-quo power in the global arena of nations. Simply, China is thus an emerging military and economic superpower in the region as well as in the international arena with vested national interests that needed to be asserted and secured.
The feat taken by China in South Asia can be considered as a part of the Chinese efforts to secure its economic foothold in the South Asian region. Consequently, the military aid given by China to Pakistan should be seen as a move by the emerging China to get hold of the necessary strategic requirement in order to extend her influence in the western flank of its national territory. Pakistan's relative importance to China as an ally to maintain China's dominance or relative power in the Asian region and at the same time to secure China's economic interests is practically on the account of its inherent strategic location in the Arabian Sea.
As stated above, China plays a vital role in the economy of Pakistan and is continuously strengthening bilateral agreements with the country concerning trade and investments. The Gwadar port is a critical point in this matter; it was groomed by both Pakistan and China to be a regional hub for trade and goods flow in Asia as the port is strategically located in an area suitable for the transfer of goods from the Gulf States and South Asia, extending to Southeast Asia. Moreover, China’s demands for a preferential advantage in the control of the area may be well seen as an attempt of China to have a greater have power over the economy of Pakistan. Since Pakistan is a good point for the Chinese business where it could manipulate the trade route from the Gulf States and South Asia, China is now forced to ensure that they could manage Pakistan as well as benefit from the inherent advantage of the country’s location (i.e. it provides Pakistan with the necessary arms and aid against India).
The Gwadar port is practically the most promising trading centre in the region. It has been rapidly growing and businesses are stating to settle and flood the area. This swift development in the area provides numerous new commercial opportunities for investors. Chinese’s control and friendly alliance with Pakistan would eventually protect their interests in Gwadar business and trade.
Moreover, Pakistan, as it is situated in the mouth of the Arabian Sea near the Gulf States and the oil producing States, turns out to be a necessary point for China in order to ensure the supply of oil from the Gulf States and to serve as the Chinese’ foothold to facilitate the flow of market of the region. If China would be able to control the stoke points in Pakistan, e.g. Gwadar port and Karachi, it may well secure its supply of oil as well as the control of regional trade and market. Furthermore, Pakistan's nuclear strength, as supported by China balances the relative dominance of India in the region, who also as mentioned had her share of ill feeling to China and is the primary contender of China in its economic interests in the region. As stated above, the border disputes between the two counties have been a source of tension; the Chinese control over Kashmir, the Tibetan issue and the Arunachal Pradesh conflict are all flaring up the resentment between India and China.
China's perception that India is a hump in her economic interests in South Asia is also adding up to the factors that motivate China to support Pakistan against India that is a reason why China chose of align herself with Pakistan and bolstering the nuclear armaments of the state. India responded to move ahead of Pakistan and reacted to build her own nuclear weapons thus causes a spiralling quantity of nuclear build up in South Asia.
Conclusion
The India–Pakistan arms race is not merely a result of the internal conflicts that drive a wedge between the two countries. There exists to be a vital factor that hastens the spiralling size of nuclear weapons and armaments in South Asia, and that is the role of China as an ally of Pakistan.
The involvement of Chinese military and economic support for Pakistan heightens the tension between the rival South Asian countries and brings about a possibility that either is willing and ready to use their nuclear arms in case they will be attacked. China as an emerging economic power is driven by its economic motives and its interest to secure its influence in the South Asian region concerning a number of items, such as to secure the supply of oil and the control of regional trade and market as mentioned above, which are of great concern for the Chinese. These motivate her to supply her all-weather friend, Pakistan with all the necessary nuclear weapons and armaments to be able to balance the superiority of India, who is her prime contender in her interests in the region. The tilt of China towards Pakistan brings about an ominous perception for India causing her to maintain and even develop her military strength, thus escalating the India-Pakistan arms race.
As a conclusion, the nuclear future of South Asia is dependent on the potential actions that will be followed by the Chinese government in the region. If the Chinese goes for an aggressive stunt to extend her influence in South Asia with the help of Pakistan, India will definitely respond belligerently, thus the possibility of using her nuclear weapons, a rather hostile nuclear event might soon to follow.
On the other hand, should China take the non-violent stance and pursue economic cooperation that would benefit her, then there will be lesser possibility that a nuclear war would ensue. India and Pakistan will eventually set their conflicts aside to discuss and resolve their outstanding issues and get things done to uphold their national economic interests as well as to ensure national security. A greater cooperation among the countries involved will be advanced to promote mutual economic development and peace and order in the South Asian region will be preserved.
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